At a Glance
- An area in the Gulf of Mexico is being watched for tropical development over the next day or so.
- Four additional areas in the Atlantic basin are being tracked, including Emily, Franklin and Gert.
- Franklin is a Caribbean flood threat, but Emily and Gert won't impact land.
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Atlantic hurricane season has sprung to life with the formation of three tropical storms and two other areas to track for possible development from the Gulf of Mexico to the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
(MORE: 88% Of Tropical Activity Happens After Aug. 15)
Development likely in the Gulf of Mexico: A low pressure system is forming in the Gulf and is now likely to develop into a tropical depression or storm before reaching southern Texas or northern Mexico on Tuesday. This potential system has been dubbed Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which is a naming convention used to identify disturbances that have some chance to form into a tropical depression or storm.
Tropical storm watches could be issued for that area on Monday in case winds increase to 40 mph before the system comes ashore near the Rio Grande.
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This system will bring impacts to South Texas regardless of whether it becomes a tropical depression or storm.
The main impact will be much-needed rainfall in this region by Monday night or early Tuesday. That said, we can't rule out localized flooding even with drought conditions currently in place.
The Caribbean and Atlantic are also being watched: Tropical storms Emily, Franklin and Gert all developed over the last couple of days.
Franklin in the eastern Caribbean poses a potential flood and mudslide threat to the northeast Caribbean islands, particularly Hispaniola, in the coming days. A tropical storm watch has been issued for the southern coasts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Farther east, tropical storms Emily and Gert are no concern for land impacts.
(MORE: Hurricane Season Forecast Update)
A tropical wave pushing through the Cabo Verde Islands has also been given a high chance of development over the next week. That wave, which is dubbed Invest 92L, will generally move west-northwestward and is not an immediate threat to the Caribbean.
The boom of tropical storms and depressions across the Atlantic and east Pacific isn't entirely uncommon. The uptick in the Atlantic is called a tropical cyclone outbreak and that is defined as having three or more tropical storms or depressions form within a few days of one another in a relatively short amount of time in close proximity of each other.
The mechanic behind bursts of activity like this one is called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which you can learn more about here. In short, there is a disturbance at the top of the atmosphere that can cause upward motion in the atmosphere. When this upward motion is enhanced over a given spot, tropical activity or even general thunderstorms get an assist and become more likely to develop. This wave of activity travels around the globe in an eastward direction and makes that trip in about 40 days.
This wave of activity actually began closer to Asia a couple of weeks ago with the start of typhoons Doksuri, Khanun and Lan. It also assisted in the development of Hurricane Dora, Fernanda and Hilary, and also Tropical Storm Greg in the east Pacific Ocean.
Such bursts of activity are most common in August and September when lower-atmospheric conditions such as wind shear and humidity are otherwise favorable for development and water temperatures are typically at their warmest.
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