402
FXUS62 KMLB 080603
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
203 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Continued VFR outside of afternoon/evening convection. Light
southerly flow early this morning becoming more SW/W after
sunrise. A change in the pattern today as the ECSB forms but
movement inland is slowed with a more active WCSB and boundary
collisions focused across the eastern peninsula. Winds backing
ESE/SE along the coast this afternoon with sea breeze formation
and continue to carry VCTS here around 17Z. Wind speeds still
relatively light at 5-10 mph areawide. Will look to add TEMPO
groups with 06Z/12Z TAF issuances. With VCTS at KMCO at 20Z,
looking for possible TEMPO group here around 20-21Z. Activity may
last thru mid-late evening across the eastern peninsula.
Lightning strikes, gusty winds, and torrential downpours the
primary aviation concerns surrounding afternoon/evening
convection.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The forecast remains on track across east central Florida tonight.
Cut down PoPs tonight as the progression inland of the east coast
sea breeze has produced little in the way of precipitation and
storms. Still cannot rule out a light shower or two across Lake
County once again, but confidence in this is waning. The remainder
of the night should then be mostly dry across the peninsula.
Guidance continues to indicate the development of isolated to
scattered showers and isolated storms across the local Atlantic
waters late tonight into early Monday morning, so kept PoPs
relatively untouched across the waters. Skies are forecast to
continue to clear overnight, with winds becoming light and
variable. Conditions remaining warm and muggy once again across
east central Florida, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Some
areas may potentially only fall to around 80.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions continue this week.
Southerly winds today and Monday will veer then offshore into
mid-week. However, will see winds back southeasterly each
afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under
15kts. Seas 1-3ft. Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances into
mid-week, with storms increasingly moving offshore, as southwest
to westerly winds develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  76  91  75 /  70  40  70  40
MCO  96  77  90  76 /  80  30  60  40
MLB  94  76  90  74 /  80  40  70  50
VRB  95  76  90  74 /  70  40  70  40
LEE  95  78  90  77 /  80  30  60  40
SFB  96  77  90  76 /  80  40  70  40
ORL  96  78  90  77 /  80  40  70  40
FPR  95  75  90  74 /  70  30  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Sedlock