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Fact check: Public opinion on the two-party system

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Gary Johnson

November 20, 2017
By Amée LaTour

Gary Johnson, a former Libertarian Party candidate for president, held a rally outside the U.S. Supreme Court on October 26 calling for the court to hear a case against the Commission on Presidential Debates regarding its participation criteria. In a press release about the rally, Johnson claimed that "the largest group of American voters are actually neither Democrats or Republicans" and "the overwhelming majority would like to have more choices than just the two 'major' parties."[1]

Is Johnson correct about party affiliation and public opinion on the two-party system?

Polls show that a plurality of registered voters and adults generally identify as neither Democrat nor Republican.[2][3] Party identification varies by gender, race, age, income, and religious affiliation.[4] According to a Gallup Poll last year, a majority of Americans say that a third major party is needed.[5][6]

Background

Gary Johnson was the Libertarian Party candidate for president in 2012 and 2016, when he earned 1 percent and 3.3 percent of the popular vote, respectively.[7][8] He was the Republican governor of New Mexico from 1995 to 2003.

Johnson is co-founder and honorary chairman of Our America Initiative, which describes its mission as "giving voice to the notion of less government and greater freedom" and "advocating policies that will allow entrepreneurs, young people and all Americans to achieve their dreams."[9]

The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) is a private, nonpartisan organization that has sponsored debates between presidential candidates each election cycle since 1988.[10][11] The commission describes its goal as being "to afford the members of the public an opportunity to sharpen their views, in a focused debate format, of the leading candidates."[11]

Johnson and the CPD

The CPD criteria for candidate participation includes that they earn an average of at least 15 percent support in recent polls from five specific national polling organizations.[12]

Johnson and his group say that the polling threshold should be eliminated because it "has created a debate duopoly that makes it virtually impossible for candidates other than the Republican and Democrat nominees to participate."[13]

Johnson, along with 2012 and 2016 Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein, filed suit against the CPD in 2015 regarding their ineligibility for the 2012 debates. Their case was dismissed by the U.S. District Court of the District of Columbia in August 2016, and the dismissal was upheld by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit in August 2017.[14][15]

The claims

Johnson claimed that "the largest group of American voters are actually neither Democrats or Republicans."

There is no definitive source on the party affiliation of voters. A total of 19 states bar voter registration by party (or non-affiliation).[16][17] Therefore, Ballotpedia looked to public opinion polls to test Johnson’s claim.

Since 1992, the Pew Research Center has asked registered voters, "In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or independent?" As of 2013, a plurality has reported themselves to be independents.[2][4]

The Pew survey for 2016 found varying results among respondents based on gender, race, age, income, and religious affiliation.[4]

Party affiliation/leaning by cohort, 2016
Rep Dem Ind Other/ DK* Rep/ Lean Rep** Dem/ Lean Dem** No Lean
Total (%) 29 33 34 4 44 48 8
Gender
Men (%) 32 26 38 4 51 41 8
Women(%) 27 40 30 4 38 54 8
Race/Ethnicity
White, non-Hispanic (%) 36 26 35 3 54 39 7
Black, non-Hispanic (%) 3 70 23 4 7 87 6
Hispanic (%) 16 47 32 5 27 63 10
Asian, non-Hispanic (%) 18 44 32 6 27 66 7
Generation
Millennial (ages 18-35) (%) 22 34 41 3 36 57 7
Generation X (36-51) (%) 27 33 36 4 42 48 9
Baby-Boomer (52-70) (%) 32 34 30 4 49 45 6
Silent (71-88) (%) 40 32 23 5 53 40 7
Family income
$75,000+ (%) 33 31 34 3 49 45 6
$30,000-$74,999 (%) 31 31 34 3 48 45 7
<$30,000 (%) 20 43 34 3 32 60 8
Religious tradition
White non-Hisp Evangelical Protestant (%) 56 14 27 3 76 20 4
White non-Hisp Mainline Protestant (%) 38 25 34 3 55 37 8
Black Protestant (%) 3 73 20 4 6 88 6
Total Catholic (%) 31 34 30 4 47 46 7
White non-Hisp Catholic (%) 38 26 32 3 58 37 6
Hispanic Catholic (%) 16 56 23 5 23 69 9
Mormon (%) 48 13 35 4 69 24 7
Jewish (%) 14 53 32 1 24 74 2
Total Unaffiliated (%) 12 39 45 3 25 66 9
*Response was volunteered.
**Pew also asked registered voters who did not identify as either Democrat or Republican, "As of today do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party?" and combined those results with reported Democrats and Republicans.


Since 2004, the Gallup organization has asked adults, "In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent?"[3] Its results show a plurality of respondents affiliated as independents since 2009.

Johnson also claimed that "the overwhelming majority would like to have more choices than just the two 'major' parties."

Since 2006, Gallup has surveyed on the question, "In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job of representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed?"[5]


Support for a third major party has fluctuated between 38 percent and 50 percent of Democrats and 30 percent and 52 percent of Republicans since 2006.[5]

A 2016 survey by Quinnipiac University found majority support for including Gary Johnson in the debates. With the exception of respondents over age 65, a majority across all cohorts supported his inclusion.[18]

Should Gary Johnson be included in the 2016 presidential debates?
Total Rep Dem Ind Men Women
Yes (%) 62 56 60 69 63 61
No (%) 29 37 29 22 29 29
DK/NA (%) 9 7 11 9 8 10
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ White Nonwhite
Yes (%) 82 67 60 43 62 62
No (%) 13 25 31 44 30 25
DK/NA (%) 4 7 9 13 8 12

Conclusion

Gary Johnson, a former Libertarian Party presidential candidate, held a rally outside the U.S. Supreme Court calling for a hearing on a case against the Commission on Presidential Debates. In a press release about the rally, Johnson claimed that "the largest group of American voters are actually neither Democrats or Republicans" and that "the overwhelming majority would like to have more choices than just the two 'major' parties."[1]

Polls show that a plurality of registered voters and adults generally identify as independent, and not as Democrat or Republican.[2][3] Party identification varies by gender, race, age, income, and religious affiliation.[4] According to a Gallup poll, a majority of respondents say that a third major party is needed.[5]

See also

Sources and Notes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Our America Initiative, "Gary Johnson: It’s Un-American to Allow GOP and Democrats to Control Presidential Debates," October 18, 2017
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 Pew Research Center, "Party Identification Trends, 1992-2016," September 13, 2016
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 Gallup, "Party Affiliation," accessed November 5, 2017
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 Pew Research Center, "2016 Party Identification Detailed Tables," September 13, 2016
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 Gallup, "Americans' Desire for Third Party Persists This Election Year," September 30, 2016
  6. ↑ Ballotpedia contacted Our America Initiative, on whose website Johnson published his press release, to request Johnson's sources, but we did not receive a response.
  7. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Official 2012 Presidential General Election Results," January 17, 2013
  8. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Official 2016 Presidential General Election Results," January 30, 2017
  9. ↑ Our America Initiative, "About," accessed November 5, 2017
  10. ↑ The CPD reports receiving funding "from the communities that host the debates and, to a lesser extent, from corporate, foundation and private donors."
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 Commission on Presidential Debates, "The Commission on Presidential Debates: An Overview," accessed November 5, 2017
  12. ↑ Other criteria are Constitutional eligibility and appearing on a sufficient number of state ballots to win a majority of Electoral College votes.
  13. ↑ Our America Initiative, "Join the Fight for #FairDebates," accessed November 5, 2017
  14. ↑ United States District Court of the District of Columbia, Johnson v. Commission on Presidential Debates, August 24, 2016
  15. ↑ United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, Johnson v. Commission on Presidential Debates, August 29, 2017
  16. ↑ U.S. Election Assistance Commission, "Register & Vote in Your State," accessed November 5, 2017
  17. ↑ Self-reported parties of registration for respondents in states that do allow party registration can be found by searching for "time series data" at American National Election Studies
  18. ↑ Quinnipiac University Poll, "Clinton Tops 50 Percent, Leads Trump By 10 Points, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Voters Like Clinton More Than Trump - But Not Much," August 25, 2016
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