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Indiana gubernatorial election, 2016

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Indiana Gubernatorial Election
Primary Date:
May 3, 2016
General Election Date:
November 8, 2016
November Election Winner:
Eric Holcomb (R) and Suzanne Crouch (R)
Incumbent Prior to Election:
Mike Pence (R) and Eric Holcomb (R)
State Executive Elections
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Governor • Lt. Governor • Attorney General
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Indiana had one of the most-watched gubernatorial races in 2016. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike Pence initially sought re-election but withdrew from the race in July 2016. Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) was selected to replace Pence on the ballot and won the general election alongside running-mate State Auditor Suzanne Crouch (R).

HIGHLIGHTS
  • On July 15, 2016, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (R) announced that he had chosen Pence as his running mate. Pence withdrew from the gubernatorial race the same day.
  • The Republican state committee selected Lt Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) to replace Pence on the ballot, with State Auditor Suzanne Crouch (R) as his running mate.
  • Former state House Speaker John Gregg (D) and state Rep. Christina Hale (D) ran on the Democratic ticket.
  • At stake in November was a five-year Republican trifecta; however, since Republicans maintained the governorship, the trifecta was not broken.

    • This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
    Click here to read the full list.

    Overview

    The governor and lieutenant governor of Indiana are elected together on a single ticket. Incumbent Governor Mike Pence (R) initially filed to run for a second term with running mate Lt. Governor Eric Holcomb (R) and ran unopposed in the May 3 Republican primary election.

    The race was set to be a rematch between Pence and former State Speaker of the House John Gregg (D), whom Pence defeated in 2012 by 3 percentage points. Pence faced a competitive re-election challenge from Gregg. However, Pence withdrew from the race on July 15 after Donald Trump selected him as his vice presidential running mate.

    Following Pence's withdrawal, Holcomb, along with two U.S. representatives for Indiana, withdrew from their respective re-election efforts in order to submit their candidacies for governor; one state representative also filed. The Republican state committee selected Holcomb on July 26, and he announced that State Auditor Suzanne Crouch (R) would replace him on the ticket as the party's candidate for lieutenant governor.

    Holcomb was appointed lieutenant governor by Pence in February 2016, just five months prior to winning the nomination for governor. At the time of the appointment, Holcomb was running for a U.S. Senate seat, but ended his campaign to assume the lieutenant governorship. Holcomb had previously served as chief of staff to U.S. Senator Dan Coats (R) for four years, and in various positions in Governor Mitch Daniels' (R) administration between 2001 and 2008.

    As of the end of the second quarter, Gregg had reported about $5 million cash-on-hand compared to Pence's $7.5 million. Following his official nomination at the 2016 Republican National Convention, Pence became subject to federal campaign laws that prevented him from contributing the bulk of his campaign fund directly to Holcomb, who had about $20,000 in his state account in July. Holcomb later reported about $1.7 million in large contributions to the secretary of state—including $1.25 million from Pence's campaign—leaving Gregg with a large cash advantage over Holcomb.

    Open elections for governor in Indiana had previously been decided by close margins, and a tight race was expected between Gregg and Holcomb in 2016. However, Holcomb won the general election by a wide margin on November 8, 2016. If Democrats had won the governor's seat in November, it would have ended a five-year Republican trifecta; this race was rated Lean Republican.

    Candidates and results

    Candidates

    In Indiana, the governor and lieutenant governor are elected together on a joint ticket.

    John Gregg.png

    John Gregg (D)
    Gubernatorial candidate
    Former state speaker of the house

    Christina Hale square.jpg

    Christina Hale (D)
    Lieutenant gubernatorial candidate
    State representative

    Eric Holcomb square.jpeg

    Eric Holcomb (R)
    Gubernatorial candidate
    Lieutenant governor of Indiana

    Suzanne Crouch square.jpeg

    Suzanne Crouch (R)
    Lieutenant gubernatorial candidate
    Indiana state auditor

    Rex Bell square.jpg

    Rex Bell (Lib.)
    Gubernatorial candidate
    Owner, Bell Contracting

    Karl Tatgenhorst square2.jpeg

    Karl Tatgenhorst (Lib.)
    Lieutenant gubernatorial candidate
    IT consultant

    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

    Adam Adkins (Ind.)
    Gubernatorial candidate
    Construction business owner

    Christopher Stried square.jpg

    Christopher Stried (Ind.)
    Gubernatorial candidate
    Independent television producer


    Candidates to fill Republican ballot vacancies

    Governor

    The 2016 Republican ticket for governor became unexpectedly vacant on July 15, 2016, when Governor Mike Pence (R) withdrew from the race in order to run for vice president alongside presidential candidate Donald Trump (R). According to Indiana state law, ballot vacancies for statewide offices may be filled by the party's state committee within 30 days of the date the first candidate withdrew—in this case, 30 days from July 15, 2016.[7]

    Lieutenant governor

    On July 29, Holcomb announced that State Auditor Suzanne Crouch (R) would join his ticket as the party's candidate for lieutenant governor. The state committee met on August 1 to formally nominate Crouch.[8]

    Results

    General election

    Indiana Governor, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes
         Republican Green check mark transparent.png Eric Holcomb and Suzanne Crouch 51.4% 1,396,460
         Democratic John Gregg and Christina Hale 45.4% 1,234,546
         Libertarian Rex Bell and Karl Tatgenhorst 3.2% 86,964
         Independent Adam Adkins 0.00% 14
         Independent Christopher Stried 0.00% 8
    Total Votes 2,717,992
    Source: Indiana Election Division

    Democratic primary election

    Indiana Governor Democratic Primary, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes
         Democratic Green check mark transparent.png John Gregg  (unopposed) 100.00% 547,375
    Total Votes 547,375
    Source: Indiana Secretary of State

    Republican primary election

    Indiana Governor Republican Primary, 2016
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes
         Republican Green check mark transparent.png Mike Pence Incumbent (unopposed) 100.00% 815,699
    Total Votes 815,699
    Source: Indiana Secretary of State

    About the primary

    During a primary election, voters select the candidate they believe should represent a political party in a general election. Primaries usually take place several months before a general election. Indiana utilizes an open primary system. Voters are not required to register with a party, but state statutes stipulate that citizens vote in the primary of the party they have voted for most often in the past. According to FairVote, however, "there is really no way to enforce this," and primaries are effectively open.[9][10]

    Indiana's primary election took place on May 3, 2016. However, the two major parties conducted state conventions to nominate candidates for lieutenant governor, attorney general, and superintendent of public instruction—candidates for these offices were not publicly nominated in the primary contests. Once the two parties decided on their nominees, nominations for these offices had to be filed by the parties before July 15, 2016. Any third party or write-in candidates interested in running for these offices also had to file before the July 15 deadline.

    Party control

    Indiana Party Control: 1992-2024
    No Democratic trifectas  •  Sixteen years of Republican trifectas
    Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

    Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
    Governor D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
    Senate R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
    House D D D R R D D D D D D D D R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

    Indiana state government has been under Republican trifecta control since 2011; Republicans also hold all partisan state executive offices except for the superintendent of public instruction seat. The last Democratic candidate to win a gubernatorial election in Indiana was Frank O'Bannon, who served as governor from 1997 until his death in 2003.[11]

    Democrats did manage to win two statewide elections in 2012, when Congressman Joe Donnelly (D) defeated Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) in the race for the United States Senate, and Glenda Ritz (D) defeated Republican Tony Bennett in the race for superintendent of public instruction.[12] Additionally, Indiana's electoral college votes went to President Barack Obama (D) in 2008, the first time the state voted for the Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964; Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won the state in 2012.[13]

    Open elections for governor in Indiana have recently been decided by close margins—incumbent Governor Mike Pence (R) won the office in 2012's open race against John Gregg (D) by a margin of three percentage points. Mitch Daniels (R) was first elected in an open race in 2004 by four points, but won re-election in 2008 by a comfortable 17 percent margin. Frank O'Bannon (D) won the 1996 open race by less than five points; in 2000, he won re-election 56 to 41.[14] Given Pence's mid-election departure to run for vice president of the United States as presidential candidate Donald Trump's (R) running mate, the 2016 gubernatorial election became an open race.

    Pence's replacement on the GOP ticket, Eric Holcomb (R), who was selected by the Republican state committee on July 26, 2016, faced a competitive election against Democrat John Gregg, whom Pence narrowly defeated in 2012. Holcomb defeated Gregg in the general election.

    Race tracking

    Race Ratings: Indiana Governor
    Race Tracker Race Ratings
    The Cook Political Report Toss-up Toss-up
    Governing Toss-up Toss-up
    Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Republican Toss-up
    Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Lean Republican Toss-up
    Daily Kos Race Ratings Lean Republican Toss-up
    Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

    Polls

    John Gregg vs. Eric Holcomb
    Poll Gregg HolcombMargin of errorSample size
    WISH TV
    (October 10-16, 2016)    		 48%43%+/-4.8544
    Monmouth
    (October 11-13, 2016)    		 50%38%+/-4.9402
    Monmouth
    (August 13-16, 2016)    		 41%42%+/-4.9403
    AVERAGES 46.33% 41% +/-4.87 449.67
    Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to [email protected].

    Endorsements

    Key endorsements[15]
    John Gregg (D)Eric Holcomb (R)
    The International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace
    and Agricultural Implement Workers of America (UAW)    		Governor Mike Pence (R)
    United Steelworkers District 7State Speaker of the House Brian Bosma (R)
    Indiana State AFL-CIOSenate President Pro Tempore David Long (R)
    Laborers’ International Union of North AmericaU.S. Senator Dan Coats (R)
    Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction Glenda Ritz (D)Ohio Governor John Kasich (R)
    Indiana State Building Trades Council 
    International Union of Operating Engineers 
    United Food and Commercial Workers Unions 
    What is a key endorsement?


    Campaign finance

    Campaign media

    Note: If a candidate is not listed below, Ballotpedia staff were unable to locate any campaign media for that candidate. Do you know of any? Tell us!

    Democrats
    John Gregg (D) Campaign website Facebook Twitter YouTube 

    		Republicans
    Eric Holcomb (R) Campaign website Facebook Twitter 

    Third-party candidates

    Adam Adkins (Ind.) Campaign website Facebook 
    Christopher Stried (Ind.) Twitter 
    Rex Bell (Lib.) Facebook 

    Campaign advertisements

    Click here to view campaign advertisements for this race.

    Recent news

    The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Indiana state Gubernatorial election. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.

    Indiana gubernatorial election, 2016 - Google News

    Past elections

    Indiana state government organizational chart
    See also: Indiana gubernatorial election, 2012

    Indiana elects governors in the presidential elections, that is, in leap years. For Indiana, 2016, 2020, 2024 and 2028 are all gubernatorial election years. Legally, the gubernatorial inauguration is always set for the second Monday in the January following an election (§ 9).

    If two candidates are tied, a joint session of the General Assembly shall cast ballots to determine the winner, pursuant to Article 5, Section 5.

    2012

    See also: Indiana gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2012

    On November 6, 2012, Mike Pence and Sue Ellspermann won election as Governor and lieutenant governor of Indiana. They defeated the Gregg/Simpson (D), Boneham/Klopfenstein (L) and Harris/Fish (I) ticket(s) in the general election.

    Governor and lieutenant governor of Indiana, 2012
    Party Candidate Vote % Votes
         Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMike Pence & Sue Ellspermann 49.5% 1,275,424
         Democratic John Gregg & Vi Simpson 46.6% 1,200,016
         Libertarian Rupert Boneham & Brad Klopfenstein 4% 101,868
         Independent Donnie Harold Harris & George Fish 0% 21
    Total Votes 2,577,329
    Election Results Via: via Indiana Secretary of State

    Race background

    Key election dates
    Filing deadline (major parties):
    February 5, 2016
    Primary date:
    May 3, 2016
    Nominating conventions:
    June 11, 2016Republican Party
    June 18, 2016Democratic Party
    Filing deadline (third parties and independents):
    June 30, 2016
    Filing deadline (write-ins):
    July 5, 2016
    Petition deadline (third parties and independents):
    July 15, 2016
    General election date:
    November 8, 2016
    Recount request deadline:
    November 22, 2016
    Inauguration:
    January 11, 2017

    Republican ballot vacancy

    See also: Indiana gubernatorial election, 2016/Republican ballot vacancy

    The 2016 election for governor of Indiana was initially slated to be a rematch between incumbent Governor Mike Pence (R) and former State House Speaker John Gregg (D), whom Pence defeated in 2012's gubernatorial election by three percentage points. Both candidates ran unopposed in the May 3 primary elections. However, after rumors had circulated for weeks, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump announced on July 15 that he had selected Pence as his vice presidential running mate.[16] Governor Pence withdrew from the gubernatorial race the same day, just prior to the noon deadline.[17]

    U.S. Reps. Susan Brooks (R) and Todd Rokita (R), Lt. Governor Eric Holcomb (R), and state Senator Jim Tomes (R) all filed declarations of candidacy to fill a ballot vacancy with the secretary of state. On July 26, the Republican state committee selected Holcomb to replace Pence on the ballot; Governor Pence had endorsed Holcomb four days prior.[18] On July 29, Holcomb announced that State Auditor Suzanne Crouch (R) would join his ticket as the party's candidate for lieutenant governor.[19]

    About the offices

    Governor

    Main article: Governor of Indiana

    The governor of the State of Indiana is an elected constitutional officer, the head of the executive branch and the highest state office in Indiana. The governor is popularly elected every four years by a plurality and is limited to two consecutive terms with at least a four-year span before the same individual may hold the office again. The 50th and current governor of Indiana is Republican Mike Pence. Pence won election on November 6, 2012, and was sworn in January 14, 2013.[20]

    Prior to the November 2016 general elections, Indiana was one of 23 Republican state government trifectas. As a result of the elections, Indiana was one of 25 Republican state government trifectas in the 2017 state legislative sessions.

    See also: Indiana General Assembly, Indiana House of Representatives, Indiana State Senate

    Incumbent

    Mike Pence (R) was first elected in 2012, defeating Democrat John Gregg by a margin of three percentage points. Previous Governor Mitch Daniels (R) was prevented from running for re-election due to term limits.

    After his successful election as governor in 2012, political analysts speculated that Pence would seek the Republican nomination for president in 2016.[21] He later announced that he would not run for president and instead would seek a second term as governor.[22] Reports later surfaced that Pence was being considered as Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's (R) running mate and vice presidential pick. Trump announced via Twitter on the morning on Friday, July 15, 2016, that Pence would indeed join Trump's ticket.[23] Pence withdrew from the gubernatorial race the same day just prior to the noon deadline.[24]

    Prior to his tenure as governor, Pence served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001 to 2012. He also previously worked as a private practice attorney and served as president of the Indiana Policy Review Foundation.

    Lieutenant governor

    Main article: Lieutenant Governor of Indiana

    The lieutenant governor of the State of Indiana is an elected constitutional officer, the second ranking officer of the executive branch and the first officer in line to succeed the governor of Indiana. The lieutenant governor is popularly elected every four years by a plurality. The 50th and current lieutenant governor is Eric Holcomb, a Republican appointed in 2015.[25]

    Incumbent

    The governor and lieutenant governor of Indiana are elected on a single ticket in the general election; lieutenant gubernatorial candidates are selected as running mates by the gubernatorial candidates.

    Incumbent Governor Mike Pence (R) announced Eric Holcomb (R) as his running mate in February 2016 upon Lieutenant Governor Sue Ellspermann's announcement that she would resign effective March 2, 2016, to assume the position of president of the Ivy Tech Community College system.[26] Holcomb previously served as chief of staff for U.S. Senator Dan Coats (R), and in 2016 launched an unsuccessful bid for the Senate seat following Coats' retirement. He ultimately withdrew from the race in order to assume the lieutenant governor post.

    Though the nominees for governor were chosen through primary elections, the two major parties conducted state conventions to confirm candidates for lieutenant governor.

    Holcomb withdrew from the race on July 15, 2016, in order to be considered by the Republican state committee as a candidate to replace Governor Mike Pence (R) as the party's 2016 candidate for governor.[27] The committee selected Holcomb as the replacement gubernatorial candidate on July 26, 2016.

    State profile

    Demographic data for Indiana
     IndianaU.S.
    Total population:6,612,768316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):35,8263,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:84.2%73.6%
    Black/African American:9.2%12.6%
    Asian:1.9%5.1%
    Native American:0.2%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
    Two or more:2.2%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:6.4%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:87.8%86.7%
    College graduation rate:24.1%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$49,255$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:18.4%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Indiana.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    Presidential voting pattern

    See also: Presidential voting trends in Indiana

    Indiana voted Republican in five out of the six presidential elections between 2000 and 2020.

    Pivot Counties (2016)

    Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. Collectively, Trump won these Pivot Counties by more than 580,000 votes. Of these 206 counties, five are located in Indiana, accounting for 2.43 percent of the total pivot counties.[28]

    Pivot Counties (2020)

    In 2020, Ballotpedia re-examined the 206 Pivot Counties to view their voting patterns following that year's presidential election. Ballotpedia defined those won by Trump won as Retained Pivot Counties and those won by Joe Biden (D) as Boomerang Pivot Counties. Nationwide, there were 181 Retained Pivot Counties and 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Indiana had five Retained Pivot Counties, 2.76 percent of all Retained Pivot Counties.

    More Indiana coverage on Ballotpedia

    See also

    Indiana government:

    Previous elections:

    Ballotpedia exclusives:

    External links

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ The Indy Channel, "Longtime Bayh aide Tom Sugar exploring run for governor," accessed August 28, 2015
    2. ↑ IndyStar, "Democrat Tom Sugar will not run for Indiana governor," September 21, 2015
    3. ↑ The Indy Star, "State Sen. Karen Tallian drops out of governor’s race," accessed August 28, 2015
    4. ↑ The Indy Channel, "ITW: Gregg-Ritz duo sets sights on Gov. Mike Pence," accessed August 28, 2015
    5. ↑ The Indy Star, "Bill Oesterle's midlife crusade," accessed August 28, 2015
    6. ↑ Indianapolis Business Journal, "Oesterle starts PAC to counter social conservatives," December 7, 2015
    7. ↑ This information was provided to Ballotpedia by the Elections Division in the Indiana secretary of state's office.
    8. ↑ Auburnpub.com, "Indiana GOP governor candidate picks auditor as running mate," July 29, 2016
    9. ↑ Indiana Code, "Section 3-10-1-6," accessed January 3, 2014
    10. ↑ FairVote, "Primaries," accessed February 10, 2016
    11. ↑ Indiana Department of Administration, "Frank L. O'Bannon," accessed August 14, 2015
    12. ↑ The Indy Star, "Indiana Democrats pick slate, look ahead to governor's race in 2016," accessed August 14, 2015
    13. ↑ National Archives and Records Administration, "Historical Election Results," accessed June 24, 2016
    14. ↑ Indiana Election Division, "Election Results," accessed July 15, 2016
    15. ↑ John Gregg for Governor, "Release: 36 Indiana majors endorse John Gregg for governor," August 13, 2015
    16. ↑ Twitter, "Donald J. Trump," accessed July 15, 2016
    17. ↑ WDRB, "Mike Pence officially withdraws from Indiana governor's race," July 15, 2016
    18. ↑ Chicago Tribune, "Pence endorses Holcomb as Indiana GOP governor candidate," July 22, 2016
    19. ↑ Auburnpub.com, "Indiana GOP governor candidate picks auditor as running mate," July 29, 2016
    20. ↑ Indiana Governor, "About," accessed August 28, 2015
    21. ↑ The Daily Signal, "What Are Mike Pence’s Prospects for a 2016 Presidential Run?" April 6, 2016
    22. ↑ Indy Star, "Gov. Mike Pence's speech announcing re-election bid," accessed August 14, 2015
    23. ↑ Twitter, "Donald J. Trump," accessed August 3, 2016
    24. ↑ Indiana Secretary of State, "2016 general election candidate withdrawal," accessed August 3, 2016
    25. ↑ Indiana Lt. Governor, "About," accessed January 17, 2012
    26. ↑ IndyStar, "Lt. Gov. Sue Ellspermann to resign March 2 in expected move," accessed February 19, 2016
    27. ↑ Indiana Elections Division, "Statewide and Federal Candidate Withdrawals," accessed July 18, 2016
    28. ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
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