Angiotensin-I converting enzyme (ACE) regulates renal hemodynamics. Its insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism, which determines most of ACE interindividual variance, was proposed as a genetic marker for diabetic nephropathy. A substitution (M235T) polymorphism in angiotensinogen (AGT) may interact with ACE I/D polymorphism for the risk of diabetic nephropathy, but their prognostic values have to be established by follow-up studies. A total of 310 type 1 diabetes mellitus patients who attended the diabetic clinic in Angers (France) took part in a prospective, observational, follow-up study. Glycohemoglobin, BP, plasma creatinine, and urinary albumin excretion were determined periodically. Nephropathy was classified as absent, incipient (microalbuminuria), established (proteinuria), advanced (plasma creatinine > or = 150 micromol/L), and terminal (renal replacement therapy). The main end point was the occurrence of a renal event defined as the progression to a higher stage of diabetic nephropathy. At baseline, 251 (81%) patients had no nephropathy, 35 (11%) had incipient nephropathy, 18 (6%) had established nephropathy, and 6 (2%) had advanced nephropathy. The ACE I/D and M235T AGT polymorphisms were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in the patients. The median duration of follow-up was 6 yr (range, 2 to 9 yr). The occurrence of renal events was significantly influenced by ACE genotype (log-rank II versus ID versus DD, P < 0.03) with a dominant deleterious effect of the D allele: ID or DD versus II (adjusted hazard ratio, 5.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.5 to 16.6). Other contributors were high glycohemoglobin and systolic BP. In the patients who initially were free of nephropathy, baseline plasma ACE concentration was higher in patients who progressed to microalbuminuria (571 +/- 231 versus 466 +/- 181 microg/L; P = 0.0032); the D allele independently favored the occurrence of incipient nephropathy (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 19.4); other contributors were male gender, baseline systolic BP, and urinary albumin excretion. The AGT M235T polymorphism was not associated with renal events. The D allele of the ACE I/D polymorphism is an independent risk factor for both the onset and the progression of diabetic nephropathy in type 1 diabetes mellitus patients.