Objective: To determine the incidence of retinopathy and the relative importance of its risk factors in type 1 diabetes.
Research design and methods: This is a 7.3-year follow-up of 764 of 1,215 (63%) people with type 1 diabetes across Europe, aged 15-60 years at baseline with no retinopathy (the EURODIAB Prospective Complications Study). Retinal photographs were taken at baseline and follow-up and risk factors were assessed to a standard protocol.
Results: Retinopathy incidence was 56% (429/764, 95% CI 52-59%). Key risk factors included diabetes duration and glycemic control. We found no evidence of a threshold effect for HbA1c on retinopathy incidence. Univariate associations were observed between incidence and albumin excretion rate, cholesterol, triglyceride, fibrinogen, von Willebrand factor, gamma-glutamyltransferase, waist-to-hip ratio, and insulin dose. No associations were observed for blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, or smoking. Independent risk factors, as assessed by standardized regression effects, were HbA1C (1.93, P = 0.0001), duration (1.32, P = 0.008), waist-to-hip ratio (1.32, P = 0.01), and fasting triglyceride (1.24, P = 0.04).
Conclusions: Retinopathy incidence in type 1 diabetes remains high. Key risk factors include diabetes duration and glycemic control, with no evidence of a threshold for the latter. Other independent risk factors, such as waist-to-hip ratio and triglyceride levels, both markers of insulin resistance, were strongly related to incidence.