An improved Brass correlational fertility model

Chin J Popul Sci. 1995;7(2):189-99.

Abstract

PIP: Demographers have for years tried to establish a mathematical model capable of accurately describing patterns of fertility change. William Brass's Gompertz correlational fertility model is based upon a standard age-specific fertility pattern correlated to the age-specific fertility rate of the area under study with the purpose of simulating the actual age-specific fertility rate of the area. While the Brass correlational fertility model has solved many problems in quantitative studies of fertility and has been applied in population simulation and prediction, it has been unsatisfactory in analyzing fertility changes in China. The authors therefore developed a parity-specific correlational model to better reflect the situation of rapid fertility decline in China. This modified model better describes the impact of current family planning policy in China. Moreover, satisfactory results can be obtained by simulating and analyzing fertility in recent years, and major parameters can be identified by using demographically definite and readily manageable indicators. These indicators can clearly reflect the goals of the country's family planning policy, such as the average age at child-bearing, median age at child-bearing, early reproduction ratio, and percentage of the second child.

MeSH terms

  • Asia
  • Asia, Eastern
  • Birth Rate*
  • China
  • Demography*
  • Developing Countries
  • Fertility
  • Methods*
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Population
  • Population Dynamics
  • Research