Screening and surveillance for Barrett's esophagus have been proposed as strategies for preventing deaths from esophageal adenocarcinoma. A meaningful discussion on the cost efficacy of screening and surveillance for Barrett's esophagus requires a reasonable estimate of the risk of esophageal cancer in this condition. The primary goal of endoscopic screening for individuals with gastroesophageal reflux disease is to identify patients with Barrett's esophagus who will benefit from an intervention to prevent cancer. There is also indirect evidence to suggest that surveillance for Barrett's esophagus may be beneficial. However, there is much debate over the efficacy of these diagnostic procedures. In the absence of definitive data, investigators have used computer models to study the cost effectiveness of screening and surveillance for Barrett's esophagus. It is important for physicians to recognize that such models do not provide a single, definitive answer.