Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: part II. The impact of non-climatic factors

Trop Med Int Health. 2004 Dec;9(12):1258-66. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2004.01341.x.

Abstract

Malaria transmission is a multifactorial phenomenon. Climate is a major limiting factor in the spatial and temporal distribution of malaria, but many non-climatic factors may alter or override the effect of climate. Thirty years of monthly malaria incidence data from KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa, reveal strong medium and long-term trends, which were not present in the climate data. This paper explores various non-climatic factors that may have contributed towards the observed trends. The development of antimalarial drug resistance, available information on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence, cross-border people movements, agricultural activities, emergence of insecticide resistance and the case reporting system are reviewed and their potential effect on malaria transmission examined. Single-variable linear regression analysis showed significant association between seasonal case totals (log-transformed) and the measured level of drug resistance (log-transformed) (r2=0.558, n=10, P=0.013) as well as relative measures of HIV infection since 1990 (r2=0.846, n=11, P=0.001). The other factors appear to have affected the level of malaria transmission at certain periods and to some degree. The importance of surveillance and inclusion of non-climatic variables in analysis of malaria data is demonstrated.

MeSH terms

  • Agriculture / trends
  • Climate
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Drug Resistance
  • Emigration and Immigration / statistics & numerical data
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Insecticide Resistance
  • Linear Models
  • Malaria / epidemiology*
  • Malaria / etiology
  • Malaria / transmission
  • Risk Factors
  • Seasons
  • South Africa / epidemiology