The present study prospectively examined the relationship between cytomegalovirus interstitial pneumonia (CMV-IP) and viral load among 56 renal transplant recipients. We sought to identify the cutoff of viral load to predict CMV-IP. Blood samples were obtained weekly within the first 2 months and every second week during 2 to 6 months after kidney transplantations. A commercial real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-method was applied to quantify CMV-DNA in plasma or in leukocytes. Among 54 renal transplant recipients who were analyzed for CMV-DNA in the blood (96.4%), 8 experienced CMV-IP (14.3%) and 2 died (3.6%). After kidney transplantation, CMV-DNA loads were near 0 in plasma before the week 4 and before the week 3 in leukocytes among both groups. From week 5 (week 4, in leukocytes), plasma CMV-DNA loads in the CMV-IP group increased, the peak value reached at week 8 in plasma and the week 9 in leukocytes. Whereas, the CMV-DNA loads both in plasma and in leukocytes in the non-CMV-IP group fluctuated at lower levels, those in plasma were significantly different between the 2 groups at the weeks 5, 7, and 9. For CMV-DNA in leukocytes, there were significant differences between 2 groups from week 6 to week 11. The present study demonstrated that dynamic determination of CMV-DNA may predict the occurrence of CMV-IP. Viral loads over 10(4) copies/mL plasma continuing for 3 weeks may serve as a cutoff to predict CMV-IP.