Accumulation of risk markers predicts the incidence of sudden death in patients with chronic heart failure

Eur J Heart Fail. 2006 May;8(3):237-42. doi: 10.1016/j.ejheart.2005.08.003. Epub 2005 Sep 26.

Abstract

Background: Sudden death is common in chronic heart failure (CHF). Risk stratification is the first step for primary prevention.

Aim: To evaluate the use of risk markers for estimating sudden death risk.

Methods and results: We prospectively examined 680 stable patients with CHF. Risk markers were evaluated using the Cox's proportional hazard model in a stepwise manner. Ejection fraction <30%, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter >60 mm, brain natriuretic peptide >200 pg/ml, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, and diabetes were significantly associated with increased risk of sudden death. When the number of risk markers were included as co-variables, only "number of risk markers >or=3'' entered the model (hazard ratio 8.95, 95% confidence interval 4.57-17.52), while the effects of individual markers did not enter the model. The annual mortality from sudden death was 11% in patients with 3 or more risk markers and 1.4% in patients with 2 or less.

Conclusions: Rather than particular risk markers, the number of accumulated risk markers was a more powerful predictor for sudden death in patients with CHF. The number of risk markers could be useful for risk stratification of sudden death.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Death, Sudden / etiology*
  • Diastole
  • Female
  • Heart Failure / complications*
  • Heart Failure / physiopathology
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk
  • Stroke Volume
  • Ventricular Function, Left