The phenomenon of irregular cessation and subsequent reversal of the large-scale circulation in turbulent Rayleigh-Bénard convection is theoretically analyzed. The force and thermal balance on a single plume detached from the thermal boundary layer yields a set of coupled nonlinear equations, whose dynamics is related to the Lorenz equations. For Prandtl and Rayleigh numbers in the range 10(-2) < or = Pr < or = 10(3) and 10(7) < or = Ra < or = 10(12), the model has the following features: (i) chaotic reversals may be exhibited at Ra > or = 10(7); (ii) the Reynolds number based on the root mean square velocity scales as Re(rms) approximately Ra([0.41...0.47]) (depending on Pr), and as Re(rms) approximately Pr(-[0.66...0.76]) (depending on Ra); and (iii) the mean reversal frequency follows an effective scaling law omega/(nu L(-2)) approximately Pr(-(0.64 +/- 0.01))Ra(0.44 +/- 0.01). The phase diagram of the model is sketched, and the observed transitions are discussed.