Predicting mortality in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage: can modification to original score improve the prediction?

Stroke. 2006 Apr;37(4):1038-44. doi: 10.1161/01.STR.0000206441.79646.49. Epub 2006 Mar 2.

Abstract

Background and purpose: A clinical grading scale for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), formally ICH score, was recently developed showing to predict 30-day mortality in a simple and reliable manner. The aim of the present study was to validate the original ICH (oICH) score in an independent cohort of patients from a developing country assessing 30-day mortality and 6-month functional outcome and whether its modifications can improve prediction.

Methods: Consecutive patients admitted with acute ICH between January 1, 2003, and July 31, 2004, were prospectively included. oICH score was applied and 2 modified ICH (mICH) scores were created with the same variables, except localization, of the oICH score but with different cutoff values. Outcome was assessed as 30-day mortality and 6-month good outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale [GOS] 4 to 5).

Results: A total of 153 patients were included during study period. Thirty-day mortality rate was 34.6% (n=53), and 59 patients (38.6%) had good functional outcome (GOS 4 to 5) at 6 months. The oICH and mICH scores predicted mortality equally well. According to Youden's index (J), the oICH score was a reliable predictor for mortality (J=0.59) but less reliable for predicting good outcome (J=0.54). The mICH scores were equal in predicting mortality but better for predicting good outcome than the oICH score (J=0.60).

Conclusions: oICH score also confirms its validity in a socially and culturally different population. Modifications of oICH do not improve its 30-day mortality prediction but improve its ability to predict good functional outcome at 6 months.

Publication types

  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Argentina
  • Cerebral Hemorrhage / mortality*
  • Cerebral Hemorrhage / physiopathology*
  • Cohort Studies
  • Developing Countries
  • Glasgow Outcome Scale
  • Humans
  • Middle Aged
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • Prospective Studies
  • ROC Curve
  • Severity of Illness Index*