Background: Pre-transplant clinical evaluation of autografting is an important step in predicting post-transplant support, complications and safety. Today, unfavorable outcomes such as early death or graft failure are rare, making them unsuitable for quality assessment of supportive autografting. However, end-points constructed from frequently occurring clinical events may estimate clinically relevant prognostic models.
Methods: The present retrospective analysis was based on two consecutive clinical trials in the Nordic area including up to 640 newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients.
Results: In the model, the efficacy (time on antibiotics and use of transfusions) was influenced by pre-transplant variables, including sex, nationality, serum creatinine, hemoglobin, disease stage at diagnosis, response following induction therapy, length of priming and average graft CD34+ cell number per day of harvest. The toxicity end-point (time to blood cell recovery) was influenced by nationality, marrow plasma cell percentage, serum creatinine, M-component isotype, response to induction therapy, length of priming and graft CD34+ cell number. The safety (early disease recurrence or death) was influenced by serum creatinine, hemoglobin, treatment response and CD34+ cell number.
Discussion: In conclusion, the model illustrates that intervention strategies in quality assessment of autografting may benefit from probability estimates of graded clinical end-points.