Background and objective: To find out if the daily emergency department (ED) census and daily ED admittances can accurately be foreseen based on the number of visits arrived on ED within the first shift hours.
Patients and method: For 6 consecutively months, the number of ED visits from 6 AM to 10 AM (early visits), and from 10 AM to next day 6 AM (daily ED census) was recorded, along with the number of both daily hospital and ED admittances from 6 AM to 6 AM. The analysis was performed for the ED as a whole, and for each one of its sections.
Results: A significant direct correlation was seen between the early visits and daily ED census. This relationship was even greater as considered the ED as a whole (R2 = 0.25; p < 0.001). A direct correlation was also found between daily ED census and daily admittances (R2 = 0.19; p < 0.001).
Conclusions: The number of early ED visits is an important tool to accurately predict the daily ED census and the number of in-hospital beds needed for ED patients.