Objective: To examine 3-year rates of conversion to dementia, and risk factors for such conversion, in a population-based sample with diverse types of cognitive impairment.
Methods: All elderly (aged 65 or older) residents of Cache County, UT, were invited to undergo two waves of dementia screening and assessment. Three-year follow-up data were available for 120 participants who had some form of mild cognitive impairment at baseline. Of these, 51 had been classified at baseline with prodromal Alzheimer disease (proAD), and 69 with other cognitive syndromes (CS).
Results: Three-year rates of conversion to dementia were 46% among those with cognitive impairment at baseline. By comparison, 3.3% without impairment converted to dementia in the interval. Among converters, AD was the most common type of dementia. In individuals with at least one APOE epsilon4 allele, those with proAD or CS exhibited a 22- to 25-fold higher risk of dementia than cognitively unimpaired individuals (vs 5- to 10-fold higher risk in those without epsilon4).
Conclusions: Individuals with all types of mild cognitive impairment have an elevated risk of dementia over 3 years, more so in those with an APOE epsilon4 allele. These results suggest value in dementia surveillance for broad groups of cognitively impaired individuals beyond any specific category, and utility of APOE genotyping as a prognostic method.