The records of 143 patients treated at 5 institutions with external beam megavoltage irradiation for localized prostatic cancer were reviewed to evaluate post-treatment changes in prostate specific antigen (PSA) in the context of subsequent events. Complete responders were defined as patients clinically well with normal PSA, clinical failures were patients with documented local tumor recurrence or distant metastases and chemical failures were patients clinically well but with a PSA level above the upper limits of normal. Correlations with pre-treatment PSA values were also made for the 50 of 143 patients for whom pre-treatment PSA data were available. Median patient followup was 27 months (range 18 to 91 months). The data were analyzed with parametric and nonparametric univariate and multivariate statistical procedures. Pre-treatment PSA levels increased with increasing tumor stage (p = 0.004) but not with increasing summed Gleason pattern scores (p = 0.15). The probability of remaining a complete responder decreased with increasing stage (p = 0.008) but not with increasing Gleason score (p = 0.14). Increasing pre-treatment PSA correlated with clinical failure (p = 0.01) and chemical failure (p = 0.006). Of the patients with a pre-treatment PSA level of less than 4 times the upper limits of normal 83% remained as complete responders compared to 30% of those with a higher pre-treatment PSA (p = 0.0002). The return of PSA levels to the normal range within 6 months after treatment was strongly correlated with a favorable outcome when analyzed by multivariate logistic regression. The status at last followup of patients who had a normal PSA level at 6 months versus those with an elevated PSA level 6 months after treatment is 94% versus 8% for complete responders (p = 0.0001), 0% versus 60% for clinical failures (p = 0.002) and 6% versus 32% for chemical failures (p = 0.14). Similar results occurred when analyzing outcomes in relationship to PSA normalization within 12 months after treatment (p = 0.001 for clinical failures, p = 0.02 for chemical failures and p = 0.001 for complete responders). We conclude that the pre-treatment level of PSA is an independent prognostic factor for prostate cancer patients treated with primary radiation therapy, and that the failure of PSA to return to the normal range within 1 year after completion of treatment identifies a group of patients at high risk for tumor recurrence.