Modeling HIV transmission risk among Mozambicans prior to their initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy

AIDS Care. 2007 May;19(5):594-604. doi: 10.1080/09540120701203337.

Abstract

Understanding sexual behavior and assessing transmission risk among people living with HIV-1 is crucial for effective HIV-1 prevention. We describe sexual behavior among HIV-positive persons initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in Beira, Mozambique. We present a Bernoulli process model (tool available online) to estimate the number of sexual partners who would acquire HIV-1 as a consequence of sexual contact with study participants within the prior three months. Baseline data were collected on 350 HAART-naive individuals 18-70 years of age from October 2004 to February 2005. In the three months prior to initiating HAART, 45% (n = 157) of participants had sexual relationships with 191 partners. Unprotected sex occurred in 70% of partnerships, with evidence suggesting unprotected sex was less likely with partners believed to be HIV-negative. Only 26% of the participants disclosed their serostatus to partners with a negative or unknown serostatus. Women were less likely to report concurrent relationships than were men (21 versus 66%; OR 0.13; 95%CI: 0.06, 0.26). Given baseline behaviors, the model estimated 23.2 infections/1,000 HIV-positive persons per year. The model demonstrated HAART along with syphilis and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) treatment combined could reduce HIV-1 transmission by 87%; increasing condom use could reduce HIV-1 transmission by 67%.

Publication types

  • Randomized Controlled Trial
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active*
  • Epidemiologic Methods
  • Female
  • HIV Infections / ethnology
  • HIV Infections / prevention & control
  • HIV Infections / transmission*
  • Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Mozambique / epidemiology
  • Prevalence
  • Sexual Behavior / ethnology*
  • Sexual Behavior / psychology
  • Sexual Behavior / statistics & numerical data