Aims: The Royal College of Radiologists has published a review of the evidence base for radiotherapy dose fractionation. We modelled the implications of changes in practice on radiotherapy demand and compared it with current activity, access and waiting times across the countries of the UK.
Materials and methods: We collected data on diagnosis, dose fractionation and waiting times on all patients in the UK starting a course of radiotherapy in the week commencing 26 September 2005. Excluding skin cancer, 2610 patients were prescribed 34,194 fractions.
Results: Radiotherapy access rates were 38% in England, 43% in Scotland and 37% in Wales. These are all lower than the 52% of cancer patients recommended by modelling. To increase access to the recommended level, a 33% increase in activity is required across the UK. For each of 13 cancer diagnoses, we modelled optimum fractionation and compared it with current practice. To deliver the dose fractionation with the best evidence base, a further increase in activity of 37% is required. To take account of both access and optimal fractionation, the two factors should be multiplied (1.33x1.37=1.82) giving an overall increase of 82% for the UK. This would require 53,741 fractions per million population annually. The exact value depends on the cancer incidence in each country, but should be compared with current activity of 28,040 in England, 39 584 in Scotland and 31,228 in Wales. Limited capacity is reflected in waiting times. The percentage of patients exceeding the maximum recommended wait of 28 days for radical or adjuvant postoperative radiotherapy was 55% in England, 44% in Scotland and 74% in Wales.
Conclusions: To secure adequate access to treatment and optimal dose fractionation, substantial increases in radiotherapy activity of 92% in England, 61% in Scotland and 97% in Wales are required. Achieving this will require a planned programme of investment in staff, training and equipment.