Prediction model and prognostic index to estimate clinically relevant pelvic organ prolapse in a general female population

Int Urogynecol J Pelvic Floor Dysfunct. 2009 Sep;20(9):1013-21. doi: 10.1007/s00192-009-0903-0. Epub 2009 May 15.

Abstract

Introduction and hypothesis: Estimation on prevalence and distribution of pelvic organ prolapse (POP) signs in a general female population is difficult. We therefore developed and validated a prediction model and prognostic instrument.

Methods: Questionnaires were sent to a general female population (45-85 years). A random sample underwent vaginal examination for POP (POPQ). A prediction model was developed using multivariate analysis and validated in a subgroup of participants.

Results: Positive questionnaire-response rate was 46.8% (1,397 of 2,979). From the questionnaire group, 649 women were vaginally examined (46.5%). Prevalence of clinically relevant POP was 21%. Multivariate analysis demonstrated significantly higher odds ratios on the report of vaginal bulging, parity > or = 2 and a mother with POP. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed areas under the curve of 0.672 and 0.640.

Conclusions: The prevalence of POP at or beyond the hymen could be estimated in a general female population using our prediction model with 17 questions and our POP score chart with eight questions.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Middle Aged
  • Netherlands / epidemiology
  • Odds Ratio
  • Physical Examination*
  • Prevalence
  • Prognosis
  • ROC Curve
  • Surveys and Questionnaires*
  • Uterine Prolapse / diagnosis*
  • Uterine Prolapse / epidemiology