Validation of a postoperative prognostic model consisting of tumor microvascular invasion, size, and grade to predict disease-free and cancer-specific survival of patients with surgically resected renal cell carcinoma

Int J Urol. 2009 Jul;16(7):616-21. doi: 10.1111/j.1442-2042.2009.02319.x. Epub 2009 May 13.

Abstract

Objectives: To determine the value of microvascular invasion, tumor size, and Fuhrman grade to predict the survival of patients with surgically resected renal cell carcinoma (RCC).

Methods: A total of 771 consecutive patients (T1-4, Nx, M0) were retrospectively reviewed. For each patient with RCC, the prognostic Sao Paulo score (SPS) was calculated using the following variables: tumor size (>7 cm vs <or=7 cm), nuclear grading, and microvascular invasion. On the basis of SPS, patients were subdivided into low-risk (LR), intermediate-risk (IR), and high-risk (HR) groups. Disease-free survival (DFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Median follow-up was 80 months.

Results: Median follow-up was 80 months. DFS rates after 5 years were 91.2%, 61.3%, and 51.9% in the original SPS LR, IR, and HR groups, respectively. CSS rates after 5 years were 94.3%, 79.8%, and 58.7%, respectively (P < 0.001). Each original SPS constituent revealed a significant influence on DFS and CSS in the multivariate analysis. By modification of the cut-off value of the maximum tumor size from 7 to 5 cm the predictive value of the SPS sum score was marginally enhanced. Using a cut-off value of 5 cm also resulted in a relatively better discrimination between the IR and the HR group regarding DFS and CSS.

Conclusions: Stratifying RCC patients by SPS into LR, IR, and HR groups provides a clinically useful tool for outcome analysis and risk assessment. However, the prognostic value of the SPS could be enhanced by including a maximum tumor size with a cut-off at 5 cm into the sum score.

MeSH terms

  • Carcinoma, Renal Cell* / mortality
  • Carcinoma, Renal Cell* / pathology
  • Carcinoma, Renal Cell* / surgery
  • Disease-Free Survival
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Kidney Neoplasms* / mortality
  • Kidney Neoplasms* / parasitology
  • Kidney Neoplasms* / surgery
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Neoplasm Invasiveness
  • Nephrectomy / mortality*
  • Postoperative Period
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Survival Analysis