The field of Alzheimer's disease therapeutic research seems poised to bring to clinic the next generation of treatments, moving beyond symptomatic benefits to modification of the underlying neurobiology of the disease. But a series of recent trials has had disappointingly negative results that raise questions about our drug development strategies. Consideration of ongoing programs demonstrates difficult pitfalls. But a clear path forward is emerging. Successful strategies will utilize newly available tools to reconsider issues of diagnosis, assessment and analysis, facilitating the study of new treatments at early stages in the disease process at which they are most likely to yield major clinical benefits.