Background: Long-term results after downstaging hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prior to liver transplantation (LT) remain unknown.
Aims: To investigate dropouts and post-transplant outcome among patients with downstaged HCC by transarterial chemo-lipiodolization (TACL).
Methods: Between 2000 and 2007, 386 patients with HCC initially exceeding Milan criteria underwent TACL for tumour downstaging and were consecutively enrolled.
Results: Overall, 160 (41.5%) patients achieved successful downstaging of HCC to within Milan criteria. During the follow-up, 82 eventually dropped off the waiting list for LT, with estimated dropout rates at 1, 2 and 5 years of 46.7%, 70.2%, and 87.2%, respectively. The overall post-transplant survival rates at 1, 2 and 5 years were 89.2%, 70.3% and 54.6% and the corresponding rates for recurrence-free survival were 74.7%, 71.8% and 66.3% respectively. Multivariate analysis indentified alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels > or = 100 ng/mL at LT (P = 0.003), maximum tumour size > or = 7 cm (P = 0.002) and the lack of complete necrosis by TACL (P = 0.048) as independent predictors of HCC recurrence after LT. Patients with none of these risk factors had an excellent post-transplant outcome, with an 87.5% probability of recurrence-free survival up to 6 years.
Conclusions: These long-term results may contribute to the database for optimizing management of LT candidates with downstaged HCC. Based on our data, patients with a maximum tumour size <7 cm who achieve complete necrosis together with AFP levels <100 ng/mL at LT may be the best candidates for LT following downstaging using TACL.