Ignorance is not probability

Risk Anal. 2010 Mar;30(3):371-6. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01361.x.

Abstract

The distinction between ignorance about a parameter and knowing only a probability distribution for that parameter is of fundamental importance in risk assessment. Brief dialogs between a hypothetical decisionmaker and a risk assessor illustrate this point, showing that the distinction has real consequences. These dialogs are followed by a short exposition that places risk analysis in a decision-theoretic framework, describes the important elements of that framework, and uses these to shed light on Terje Aven's criticism of nonprobabilistic purely "objective" methods. Suggestions are offered concerning a more effective approach to evaluating those methods.

Publication types

  • Review

MeSH terms

  • Humans
  • Probability*
  • Risk
  • Risk Assessment