Comparison of interval and Monte Carlo simulation for the prediction of postprandial glucose under uncertainty in type 1 diabetes mellitus

Comput Methods Programs Biomed. 2011 Dec;104(3):325-32. doi: 10.1016/j.cmpb.2010.08.008. Epub 2010 Sep 25.

Abstract

In this paper, the problem of tackling uncertainty in the prediction of postprandial blood glucose is analyzed. Two simulation approaches, Monte Carlo and interval models, are studied and compared. Interval simulation is carried out using modal interval analysis. Simulation of a glucoregulatory model with uncertainty in insulin sensitivities, glucose absorption and food intake is carried out using both methods. Interval simulation is superior in predicting all severe and mild hyper- and hypoglycemia episodes. Furthermore, much less computational time is required for interval simulation than for Monte Carlo simulation.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Blood Glucose / analysis*
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 / blood*
  • Humans
  • Insulin / administration & dosage
  • Insulin / metabolism
  • Insulin / pharmacokinetics
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Monte Carlo Method*
  • Postprandial Period*
  • Uncertainty*

Substances

  • Blood Glucose
  • Insulin