Predicting the probability of 90-day survival of elderly patients with bladder cancer treated with radical cystectomy

Purpose: Despite the increased morbidity and mortality of radical cystectomy in elderly individuals with bladder cancer numerous studies show that surgery can provide a survival benefit. We sought to better identify patients at substantial risk for postoperative mortality.

Materials and methods: We evaluated 220 consecutive patients 75 years old or older treated with radical cystectomy for bladder cancer at a single institution from 2000 to 2008. The analytical cohort comprised 169 patients with complete preoperative data available. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the value of precystectomy clinical information to predict 90-day survival after radical cystectomy. Results were used to create a nomogram predicting the probability of 90-day survival after radical cystectomy. The model was then subjected to 200 bootstrap resamples for internal validation.

Results: Of the 220 patients 28 (12.7%) died within 90 days of surgery. Older age (HR 2.30, 95% CI 1.22-4.32) and lower preoperative albumin (HR 2.50, 95% CI 1.40-4.45) were significant predictors of 90-day mortality. We developed a nomogram based on patient age, clinical stage, Charlson comorbidity index and albumin to predict the likelihood of 90-day mortality with 75% accuracy. Internal validation showed a bootstrap adjusted concordance index of 71%.

Conclusions: We developed a nomogram that provides individualized risk estimations to predict the probability of 90-day mortality, potentially enhancing preoperative counseling and providing clinicians with an added tool to individualize treatment decisions in this challenging patient population. These data suggest that albumin is a strong predictor of postoperative mortality and show the importance of assessing this variable before surgery.