Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score for predicting outcome in critically ill medical patients with liver cirrhosis

J Crit Care. 2012 Aug;27(4):424.e1-6. doi: 10.1016/j.jcrc.2011.11.014. Epub 2012 Jan 9.

Abstract

Purpose: We hypothesized that the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score at admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) can predict in-hospital mortality for patients with liver cirrhosis. We also tested the MELD-natremia (Na) score and compared the predictive value of the 2 models.

Materials and methods: This is a retrospective cohort study. A total of 441 consecutive patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to the ICU were included. The MELD and MELD-Na scores and other variables were obtained upon patients' admission to the ICU.

Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict in-hospital mortality was 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.82) for the MELD score and 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.81) for the MELD-Na score.

Conclusion: The MELD scoring system provides useful prognostic information for critically ill patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to an ICU. The MELD and MELD-Na scores had similar predictive value.

MeSH terms

  • Critical Illness / mortality*
  • Female
  • Hospital Mortality
  • Humans
  • Intensive Care Units / statistics & numerical data*
  • Liver Cirrhosis / diagnosis*
  • Liver Cirrhosis / mortality
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Organ Dysfunction Scores*
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care
  • Prognosis
  • ROC Curve
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors