Increasing disparity in waitlist mortality rates with increased model for end-stage liver disease scores for candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma versus candidates without hepatocellular carcinoma

Liver Transpl. 2012 Apr;18(4):434-43. doi: 10.1002/lt.23394.

Abstract

Candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within the Milan criteria (MC) receive standardized Model for End-Stage LIver Disease (MELD) exception points because of the projected risk of tumor expansion beyond the MC. Exception points at listing are meant to be equivalent to a 15% rusj if 90-day mortality, with additional points granted every 3 months, equivalent to a 10% increased morality risk. We analyzed the United Network for Organ Sharing database (January 1, 2005 to May 31, 2009) to compare the 90-day waitlist outcomes of HCC candidates and non-HCC candidates with similar MELD scores. Two hundred fifty-nine HCC candidates (4.1%) who were initially listed with 22 MELD exception points were removed because of death or clinical deterioration within 90 days of listing, whereas 283 non-HCC candidates (11.0%) with initial laboratory MELD scores of 21 to 23 were removed. Ninety-three HCC candidates (4.6%) with 25 exception points (after 3-6 months of waiting) were removed because of death or clinical deterioration within 90 days, whereas 805 non-HCC candidates (17.3%) with laboratory MELD scores of 24 to 26 were removed. Twenty HCC candidates (3.0%) with 28 exception points (after 6-9 months of waiting) were removed for death or clinical deterioration within 90 days, whereas 646 non-HCC candidates (23.6%) with laboratory MELD scores of 27 to 29 were removed. In multivariate logistic regression models, HCC candidates had significantly lower 90-day odds of waitlist removal for death or clinical deterioration (P < 0.001). Over time, the risk of waitlist removal for death or clinical deterioration was unchanged for HCC candidates (P = 0.17), whereas it increased significantly for non-HCC candidates. The current allotment of HCC exception points should be re-evaluated because of the stable risk of waitlist dropout for these candidates.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular* / diagnosis
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular* / mortality
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular* / surgery
  • Chi-Square Distribution
  • Disease Progression
  • Female
  • Health Status Indicators*
  • Humans
  • Liver Diseases* / diagnosis
  • Liver Diseases* / mortality
  • Liver Diseases* / pathology
  • Liver Diseases* / surgery
  • Liver Neoplasms* / diagnosis
  • Liver Neoplasms* / mortality
  • Liver Neoplasms* / pathology
  • Liver Neoplasms* / surgery
  • Liver Transplantation / mortality*
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Odds Ratio
  • Patient Dropouts
  • Patient Selection*
  • Registries
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Survival Analysis
  • Time Factors
  • United States / epidemiology
  • Waiting Lists / mortality*