External validation of 2 prognostic indices for patients with advanced pancreatic cancer treated with first-line therapy

Pancreas. 2012 Jul;41(5):738-44. doi: 10.1097/MPA.0b013e31823bcc7b.

Abstract

Objectives: The objective of this study was to perform an external validation of 2 Asian prognostic indices for patients with advanced pancreatic cancer.

Methods: A score was calculated in patients treated with frontline therapy derived from the factors Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status, localization of primary tumor, and C-reactive protein level according to Sawaki and from the factors Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status, pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen, and presence/absence of distant metastasis following Ishii. For analysis, the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test were used. An analysis of the Brier score was performed to determine how the prediction error was reduced by the introduction of prognostic factors.

Results: For the Sawaki and Ishii score, 112 and 105 complete cases were available, respectively. Based on the 3 prognostic categories according to the Sawaki score, median overall survival was 12.3, 9.9, and 5.9 months, respectively (not statistically significant). By adapting the Ishii score to our population, 93% of the patients were allocated to the subgroup with "good" and only 7% to the subgroup with "intermediate" prognosis. Corresponding median OS was 10.5 and 3.8 months, respectively (P = 0.0035).

Conclusions: Both Asian indices may not be suitable for defining different prognostic subgroups for a white population with advanced pancreatic cancer.

Publication types

  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols / therapeutic use*
  • C-Reactive Protein / metabolism
  • Combined Modality Therapy
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care / methods*
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / drug therapy*
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / radiotherapy
  • Pancreatic Neoplasms / surgery
  • Prognosis
  • Prostate / drug effects
  • Prostate / radiation effects
  • Prostate / surgery
  • Reproducibility of Results

Substances

  • C-Reactive Protein