By extending a well-established time-domain perturbation approach to dual-polarization propagation, we provide an analytical framework to predict the nonlinear interference (NLI) variance, i.e., the variance induced by nonlinearity on the sampled field, and the nonlinear threshold (NLT) in coherent transmissions with dominant intrachannel-four-wave-mixing (IFWM). Such a framework applies to non dispersion managed (NDM) very long-haul coherent optical systems at nowadays typical baudrates of tens of Gigabaud, as well as to dispersion-managed (DM) systems at even higher baudrates, whenever IFWM is not removed by nonlinear equalization and is thus the dominant nonlinearity. The NLI variance formula has two fitting parameters which can be calibrated from simulations. From the NLI variance formula, analytical expressions of the NLT for both DM and NDM systems are derived and checked against recent NLT Monte-Carlo simulations.