A prognostic model to predict survival in 867 World Health Organization-defined essential thrombocythemia at diagnosis: a study by the International Working Group on Myelofibrosis Research and Treatment

Blood. 2012 Aug 9;120(6):1197-201. doi: 10.1182/blood-2012-01-403279. Epub 2012 Jun 26.

Abstract

Diagnosis of essential thrombocythemia (ET) has been updated in the last World Health Organization (WHO) classification. We developed a prognostic model to predict survival at diagnosis, named IPSET (International Prognostic Score for ET), studying patients with WHO-defined ET. Age 60 years or older, leukocyte count ≥ 11 × 10(9)/L, and prior thrombosis significantly affected survival, by multivariable Cox regression. On the basis of the hazard ratio, we assigned 2 points to age and 1 each to leukocyte count and thrombosis. So, the IPSET model allocated 867 patients into 3 risk categories with significantly different survival: low (sum of points = 0; median survival not reached), intermediate (sum = 1-2; median survival 24.5 years), and high (sum = 3-4, median survival 13.8 years). The IPSET model was further validated in 2 independent cohorts including 132 WHO-defined ET and 234 Polycythemia Vera Study Group-defined ET patients. The IPSET model was able to predict the occurrence of thrombosis, and not to predict post-ET myelofibrosis. In conclusion, IPSET, based on age ≥ 60 years, leukocyte count ≥ 11 × 10(9)/L, and history of thrombosis allows prognostic assessment of WHO-defined ET and the validation process makes IPSET applicable in all patients phenotypically appearing as ET.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Female
  • Humans
  • International Cooperation
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical
  • Multicenter Studies as Topic
  • Primary Myelofibrosis / etiology
  • Primary Myelofibrosis / therapy*
  • Prognosis
  • Survival Analysis
  • Thrombocythemia, Essential / diagnosis*
  • Thrombocythemia, Essential / mortality*
  • Thrombocythemia, Essential / therapy
  • World Health Organization
  • Young Adult