Importance: Long-term data on mortality after first-ever stroke in adults aged 18 through 50 years are scarce and usually restricted to ischemic stroke. Moreover, expected mortality not related to first-ever stroke is not taken in account. OBJECTIVES To investigate long-term mortality and cause of death after acute stroke in adults aged 18 through 50 years and to compare this with nationwide age- and sex-matched mortality rates.
Design, setting, and participants: The Follow -Up of Transient Ischemic Attack and Stroke Patients and Unelucidated Risk Factor Evaluation (FUTURE) study, a prospective cohort study of prognosis after transient ischemic attack (TIA), ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke in adults aged 18 through 50 years admitted to Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, the Netherlands, between January 1, 1980, and November 1, 2010. The survival status of 959 consecutive patients with a first-ever TIA (n = 262), ischemic stroke (n = 606), or intracerebral hemorrhage (n = 91) was assessed as of November 1, 2012. Mean follow-up duration was 11.1 (SD, 8.7) years (median, 8.3 [interquartile range, 4.0-17.4]). Observed mortality was compared with the expected mortality, derived from mortality rates in the general population with similar age, sex, and calendar-year characteristics.
Main outcome measures: Cumulative 20-year mortality among 30-day survivors of stroke.
Results: At the end of follow-up, 192 patients (20.0%) had died. Among 30-day survivors, cumulative 20-year risk of death was 24.9% (95% CI, 16.0%-33.7%) for TIA, 26.8% (95% CI, 21.9%-31.8%) for ischemic stroke, and 13.7% (95% CI, 3.6%-23.9%) for intracerebral hemorrhage. Observed mortality was increased compared with expected mortality (standardized mortality ratio [SMR], 2.6 [95% CI, 1.8-3.7] for TIA, 3.9 [95% CI, 3.2-4.7] for ischemic stroke, and 3.9 [95% CI, 1.9-7.2 for intracerebral hemorrhage, respectively). For ischemic stroke, cumulative 20-year mortality among 30-day survivors was higher in men than in women (33.7% [95% CI, 26.1%-41.3%] vs 19.8% [95% CI, 13.8%-25.9%]). The SMR was 4.3 (95% CI, 3.2-5.6) for women and 3.6 (95% CI, 2.8-4.6) for men. For all etiologic subtypes of ischemic stroke, observed mortality exceeded expected mortality.
Conclusions and relevance: Among adults aged 18 through 50 years, 20-year mortality following acute stroke was relatively high compared with expected mortality. These findings may warrant further research evaluating secondary prevention strategies in these patients.