Clinical predictors to identify paroxysmal atrial fibrillation after ischaemic stroke

Background and purpose: Detection of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (pAF) after an ischaemic cerebrovascular event is of imminent interest, because oral anticoagulation as a highly effective secondary preventive treatment is available. Whereas permanent atrial fibrillation (AF) can be detected during routine electrocardiogram (ECG), longer detection duration will detect more pAF but might be resource consuming. The current study tried to identify clinical predictors for pAF detected during long-term Holter ECG and clinical follow-up.

Methods: Patients with acute ischaemic stroke were prospectively investigated with an intensified algorithm to detect pAF (7-day Holter ECG, follow-up investigations after 90 days and 1 year).

Results: Two hundred and eighty-one patients were included, 44 of whom had to be excluded since they presented with permanent AF and another 13 patients had to be excluded due to other causes leaving 224 patients (mean age 68.5 years, 58.5% male). Twenty-nine (12.9%) patients could be identified to have pAF during prolonged Holter monitoring, an additional 13 (5.8%) after follow-up investigations. Multivariate analysis identified advanced age [odds ratio (OR) 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.08] as well as clinical symptoms >24 h (OR 5.17, 95% CI 1.73-15.48) and a history of coronary artery disease (OR 3.14, 95% CI 1.35-7.28) to be predictive for the detection of pAF.

Conclusions: In acute stroke patients with advanced age, history of coronary artery disease and clinical symptoms >24 h, a prolonged Holter ECG monitoring and follow-up is warranted to identify pAF. This could increase the detection rate of patients requiring anticoagulation and may be able to reduce the risk of recurrent stroke in the case of successful anticoagulation of these patients.