Triglycerides-diabetes association in healthy middle-aged men: modified by physical fitness? A long term follow-up of 1962 Norwegian men in the Oslo Ischemia Study

Aims: To examine the impact of physical fitness (PF) on the association between fasting serum triglycerides (FTG) and diabetes risk and whether temporal changes in FTG predict diabetes risk in healthy middle-aged men.

Methods: FTG and PF (bicycle exercise test) were measured in 1962 men aged 40-59 years in 1972-1975 (Survey 1) and repeated in 1387 still healthy men on average 7.3 years later (Survey 2). Diabetes was diagnosed according to WHO 1985-criteria.

Results: During 35 years follow-up 202/1962 (10.3%) men developed diabetes. Compared with the lowest, the upper FTG tertile had a 2.58-fold (95% CI: 1.81-3.74) diabetes risk adjusted for age, fasting blood glucose and maternal diabetes, and a 2.29-fold (95%CI: 1.60-3.33) when also adjusting for PF. Compared with unchanged (±25%) FTG levels (n=664), FTG reduction of more than 25% (n=261) was associated with 56% lower (0.44; 95% CI: 0.24-0.75) diabetes risk, while FTG increase of more than 25% (n=462) was associated with similar risk. These associations were unchanged when adjusted for PF and PF change.

Conclusions: High FTG-levels predicted long-term diabetes risk in healthy middle-aged men, and the association was only modestly weakened when adjusted for PF. A reduction in FTG was associated with decreased diabetes risk.