Purpose: To determine the impact of applying an age cutoff to tumor-based Lynch syndrome (LS) screening, specifically focusing on changes in relative effectiveness, efficiency, and cost. The project was undertaken to answer questions about implementation of the LS screening program in an integrated health care delivery system.
Patients and methods: Clinical data extracted from an internal cancer registry, previous modeling efforts, published literature, and gray data were used to populate decision models designed to answer questions about the impact of age cutoffs in LS screening. Patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) were stratified at 10-year intervals from ages 50 to 80 years and compared with no age cutoff. Outcomes are reported for a cohort of 325 patients screened and includes total cost to screen, LS cases present in the cutoff category, number of LS cases expected to be identified by screening, cost per LS case detected, and total number and percentage of LS cases missed.
Conclusion: Applying an age cutoff to an LS screening program has considerable potential for decreasing total screening costs and increasing efficiency, but at a loss of effectiveness. Imposing an age cutoff of 50 years reduces the cost of the screening program to 16% of a program with no age cutoff, but at the expense of missing more than half of the cases. Failure to identify LS cases is magnified by a cascade effect in family members. The results of this analysis influenced the final policy in our system.