The short-term prediction of preterm birth: a systematic review and diagnostic metaanalysis

Objective: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of fetal fibronectin (fFN), fetal breathing movements (FBM), and cervical length (CL) for the short-term prediction of preterm birth in symptomatic patients.

Study design: Diagnostic metaanalysis using bivariate methods.

Results: Pooled sensitivities for fFN, FBM, and CL for delivery within 48 hours of testing were 0.62 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.43-0.78), 0.75 (95% CI, 0.57-0.87) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.54-0.90), respectively. Pooled specificities for fFN, FBM, and CL for delivery within 48 hours were 0.81 (95% CI, 0.74-0.86), 0.93 (95% CI, 0.75-0.98) and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.84-0.91). Pooled sensitivities for fFN, FBM, and CL for delivery within 7 days were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.69-0.80), 0.67 (95% CI, 0.43-0.84), and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.58-0.85). Pooled specificities for fFN, FBM, and CL for delivery within 7 days were 0.79 (95% CI, 0.76-0.83), 0.98 (95% CI, 0.83-1.00) and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.85-0.92). Based on a pretest probability of 10% for delivery within 48 hours, posttest probabilities (positive and negative) were 27% and 5% for fFN, 54% and 3% for fFN, and 42% and 3% for CL. For a pretest probability of 20% for delivery within 7 days, posttest probabilities (positive and negative) were 48% and 7% for fFN, 89% and 8% for FBM, and 63% and 7% for CL.

Conclusion: In symptomatic patients, for fFN, absence of FBM, and CL have diagnostic use as predictors of delivery within 48 hours and within 7 days of testing. Absence of FBM appears to be the best test for predicting preterm birth.