Background & aims: Liver stiffness (LS) is increased in liver cirrhosis, higher values being associated with complications, among them the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, LS values alone cannot accurately differentiate patients with HCC. Therefore, our aim was to study the performance of LS measurement data and common biomarkers for the detection of HCC in HCV related liver cirrhosis.
Methods: We performed a case matching study comparing HCV cirrhotic patients with and without HCC (72 in each group) that were identical in terms of sex, age, BMI and duration of HCV infection. All patients underwent LS measurement, endoscopy, liver imaging and liver function tests. A multiple regression analysis was performed and a HCC detection model was calculated, which was further validated in another group of 40 HCV infected cirrhotics, of whom 52% had HCC.
Results: In the HCC group, LS was significantly higher (42 vs 27 kPa, p<0.0001). In the multivariate analysis higher values of LS, alanine-aminotransferase (ALAT), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and interquartile range (IQR) of LS measurements were independently associated with the presence of HCC (p<0.0001 for all parameters; Odds Ratios of 8.27, 1.01, 1.04 and 1.16, respectively). The detection model combining the four variables showed a good diagnostic performance in both training and validation groups, with AUROCs of 0.86 and 0.8, respectively. All variables were also positively correlated with tumor size.
Conclusion: In HCV related cirrhosis, HCC is associated with increased LS and IQR values and high ALAT and AFP levels. By combining these four parameters into a regression model, liver cancer may be noninvasively predicted with good accuracy.