6-min walk distance (6MWD) has recently been shown to be associated with the risk of mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF); however, the independent contribution of 6MWD to the prediction of mortality risk has not been evaluated in a large, well-defined population of patients with IPF. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to characterise the relationship between risk factors of interest and all-cause mortality in IPF patients who completed a week 24 study visit in a clinical trial evaluating interferon γ-1b (n=748). Risk factors of interest included the independent predictors of mortality in the previously published clinical prediction model together with 6MWD and 24-week change in 6MWD. Baseline 6MWD <250 m was associated with a two-fold increase in the risk of mortality (hazard ratio 2.12, 95% CI 1.15-3.92) and a 24-week decline in 6MWD >50 m was associated with a nearly three-fold increase in mortality risk (hazard ratio 2.73; 95% CI 1.60-4.66). Inclusion of 6MWD data improved model discrimination compared with the original model (C-statistic 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.85) versus 0.75 (0.71-0.79)). Both 6MWD and change in 6MWD are independent predictors of mortality in patients with IPF. The addition of 6MWD to the clinical prediction model improves model discrimination compared with the original model.
Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00075998.