Background: The incidence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) is rapidly increasing worldwide and associated with alanine aminotransferase (ALT) activity. However, the impact of ALT activity on MetS incidence is inconsistent in published literature. We therefore estimated the association between elevated ALT activity and incident MetS through a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.
Methods/principal findings: All published prospective cohort studies on the association between elevated ALT activity and incident MetS were retrieved from Pubmed, Embase, and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI). In all, seven prospective cohort studies, with 31545 participants and 2873 cases of incident MetS were recruited. If there was insignificant heterogeneity (P-value>0.05 and I(2)<50%), the fixed-effect model was used to calculate the pooled relative risks (RRs) of incident MetS induced by raised ALT. Otherwise, the random-effect model was used. The calculated RR was 1.81 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.49-2.14) when the incidence of MetS was compared between the highest versus the lowest classification of ALT activities. The pooled RR was 1.13 (95% CI: 1.11-1.16) in dose-response analysis with 5 units per liter (U/l) of ALT increment. Subgroup analysis suggested that gender disparity might be the main origin of heterogeneity in overall analysis (P = 0.007 between RRs of gender-specific subgroups evaluated with 5 U/l increments of ALT). Women had a higher dose-response risk of MetS incidence (1.38, 95% CI: 1.20-1.55) than men. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of results. No publication bias was found in our meta-analysis.
Conclusions/significance: Current evidence from prospective studies supports the association between ALT elevation and increasing MetS incidence. This association is closer and more consistent in female population. Further studies are needed to confirm this association and to investigate the potential mechanism of ALT activity on MetS occurrence.