A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2014

William J Sutherland; Rosalind Aveling; Thomas M Brooks; Mick Clout; Lynn V Dicks; Liz Fellman; Erica Fleishman; David W Gibbons; Brandon Keim; Fiona Lickorish; Kathryn A Monk; Diana Mortimer; Lloyd S Peck; Jules Pretty; Johan Rockström; Jon Paul Rodríguez; Rebecca K Smith; Mark D Spalding; Femke H Tonneijck; Andrew R Watkinson

doi:10.1016/j.tree.2013.11.004

A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2014

Trends Ecol Evol. 2014 Jan;29(1):15-22. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2013.11.004. Epub 2013 Dec 11.

Authors

William J Sutherland¹, Rosalind Aveling², Thomas M Brooks³, Mick Clout⁴, Lynn V Dicks⁵, Liz Fellman⁶, Erica Fleishman⁷, David W Gibbons⁸, Brandon Keim⁹, Fiona Lickorish¹⁰, Kathryn A Monk¹¹, Diana Mortimer¹², Lloyd S Peck¹³, Jules Pretty¹⁴, Johan Rockström¹⁵, Jon Paul Rodríguez¹⁶, Rebecca K Smith⁵, Mark D Spalding¹⁷, Femke H Tonneijck¹⁸, Andrew R Watkinson¹⁹

Affiliations

¹ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK. Electronic address: [email protected].
² Fauna & Flora International, 4th Floor, Jupiter House, Station Road, Cambridge, CB1 2JD, UK.
³ International Union for Conservation of Nature, 28 rue Mauverney, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland.
⁴ Centre for Biodiversity and Biosecurity, School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, PB 92019, Auckland, New Zealand.
⁵ Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK.
⁶ Natural Environment Research Council, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon, SN2 1EU, UK.
⁷ John Muir Institute of the Environment, The Barn, One Shields Avenue, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
⁸ Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, SG19 2DL, UK.
⁹ WIRED, 520 3rd Street, Third Floor at Bryant Street, San Francisco, CA 94107, USA.
¹⁰ Centre for Environmental Risks and Futures, Cranfield University, Cranfield, MK43 0AL, UK.
¹¹ Natural Resources Wales, Cambria House, 29 Newport Road, Cardiff, CF24 0TP, UK.
¹² Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Monkstone House, City Road, Peterborough, PE1 1JY, UK.
¹³ British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK.
¹⁴ Essex Sustainability Institute and Department of Biological Sciences, University of Essex, Colchester, CO4 3SQ, UK.
¹⁵ Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, SE-106 19, Stockholm, Sweden.
¹⁶ Center for Ecology, Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Investigation (Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas - IVIC), Apdo. 20632, Caracas 1020-A, Venezuela.
¹⁷ Global Marine Team, The Nature Conservancy, Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK.
¹⁸ Wetlands International, PO Box 471, 6700 AL Wageningen, The Netherlands.
¹⁹ School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK.

Abstract

This paper presents the output of our fifth annual horizon-scanning exercise, which aims to identify topics that increasingly may affect conservation of biological diversity, but have yet to be widely considered. A team of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist identified 15 topics which were identified via an iterative, Delphi-like process. The 15 topics include a carbon market induced financial crash, rapid geographic expansion of macroalgal cultivation, genetic control of invasive species, probiotic therapy for amphibians, and an emerging snake fungal disease.

Keywords: climate change; diseases; future; horizon scan; priority setting.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Review

MeSH terms

Biodiversity
Climate Change*
Communicable Diseases / transmission*
Conservation of Natural Resources* / trends
Introduced Species*