Objective: To explore the risk factors of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) recurrence in adult patients and establish a prognosis index (PI) calculation model in order to improve the prevention strategy of ALL in adults.
Methods: 104 adult ALL patients from Blood Diseases Hospital & Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences between August 2008 and November 2011 were enrolled. COX proportional hazards regression stratified by Dummy variable was used to set up the prediction model; Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test were used to estimate and compare the survival. After calculated individual PI value, patients' expected survival should be estimated by groups.
Results: The overall median survival of adult ALL patients was 22.00 months (95% CI 17.00-27.00). COX regression analysis showed that chemotherapy group patients had a higher risk of recurrence than of ASCT group while setting treatment as the dummy variable (RR=2.052, 95%CI 0.877-4.799, P=0.007). Stratified Analysis showed that the risk factors of B-ALL recurrence in adult patients included HGB <100 g/L (RR=0.186, 95% CI 0.068-0.512, P=0.001), CNSL (RR=7.767,95% CI 2.951- 20.433, P=0.001), number of consolidation chemotherapy<3 (RR=0.445, 95% CI 0.211-0.940, P=0.034) and Ph chromosome positive (RR=2.771, 95% CI 1.353-5.674, P=0.005). Grouped by the PI value, the expected survival of each individual patient could be estimated as PI=0.58 base.
Conclusion: HGB, CNSL, number of consolidation chemotherapy and Ph chromosome were independent risk factors of B-ALL recurrence in adult patients. PI value could predict the survival of adult ALL patients and provide reference for individual therapy and prognostic evaluation.