Performance of a nomogram predicting disease-specific survival after an R0 resection for gastric cancer in patients receiving postoperative chemoradiation therapy

Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys. 2014 Mar 1;88(3):624-9. doi: 10.1016/j.ijrobp.2013.11.213. Epub 2014 Jan 7.

Abstract

Purpose: The internationally validated Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) gastric carcinoma nomogram was based on patients who underwent curative (R0) gastrectomy, without any other therapy. The purpose of the current study was to assess the performance of this gastric cancer nomogram in patients who received chemoradiation therapy after an R0 resection for gastric cancer.

Methods and materials: In a combined dataset of 76 patients from the Netherlands Cancer Institute (NKI), and 63 patients from MSKCC, who received postoperative chemoradiation therapy (CRT) after an R0 gastrectomy, the nomogram was validated by means of the concordance index (CI) and a calibration plot.

Results: The concordance index for the nomogram was 0.64, which was lower than the CI of the nomogram for patients who received no adjuvant therapy (0.80). In the calibration plot, observed survival was approximately 20% higher than the nomogram-predicted survival for patients receiving postoperative CRT.

Conclusions: The MSKCC gastric carcinoma nomogram significantly underpredicted survival for patients in the current study, suggesting an impact of postoperative CRT on survival in patients who underwent an R0 resection for gastric cancer, which has been demonstrated by randomized controlled trials. This analysis stresses the need for updating nomograms with the incorporation of multimodal strategies.

Publication types

  • Evaluation Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adenocarcinoma / mortality*
  • Adenocarcinoma / pathology
  • Adenocarcinoma / therapy*
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols / therapeutic use
  • Cancer Care Facilities
  • Chemoradiotherapy / mortality*
  • Female
  • Gastrectomy / mortality
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Netherlands
  • New York City
  • Nomograms*
  • Postoperative Period
  • Probability
  • Prognosis
  • Radiotherapy Dosage
  • Stomach Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Stomach Neoplasms / pathology
  • Stomach Neoplasms / therapy*
  • Survival Analysis