Deaths in the United States among persons with Alzheimer's disease (2010-2050)

Background: Alzheimer's disease (AD) profoundly affects the end-of-life experience. Yet, counts of deaths attributable to AD understate this burden of AD in the population. Therefore, we estimated the annual number of deaths in the United States among older adults with AD from 2010 to 2050.

Methods: We calculated probabilities of AD incidence and mortality from a longitudinal population-based study of 10,802 participants. From this population, 1913 previously disease-free individuals, selected via stratified random sampling, underwent 2577 detailed clinical evaluations. Over the course of follow-up, 990 participants died. We computed age-, sex-, race-, and education-specific AD incidences and education-adjusted AD mortality proportions specific to age, sex, and race group. We then combined these probabilities with US-wide census, education, and mortality data.

Results: In 2010, approximately 600,000 deaths occurred among individuals aged 65 years or older with AD, comprising 32% of all older adult deaths. By 2050, this number is projected to be 1.6 million, 43% of all older adult deaths.

Conclusion: Individuals with AD comprise a substantial number of older adult deaths in the United States, a number expected to rise considerably in coming decades.