Several neurological disorders are associated with the aggregation of aberrant proteins, often localized in intracellular organelles such as the endoplasmic reticulum. Here we study protein aggregation kinetics by mean-field reactions and three dimensional Monte carlo simulations of diffusion-limited aggregation of linear polymers in a confined space, representing the endoplasmic reticulum. By tuning the rates of protein production and degradation, we show that the system undergoes a non-equilibrium phase transition from a physiological phase with little or no polymer accumulation to a pathological phase characterized by persistent polymerization. A combination of external factors accumulating during the lifetime of a patient can thus slightly modify the phase transition control parameters, tipping the balance from a long symptomless lag phase to an accelerated pathological development. The model can be successfully used to interpret experimental data on amyloid-β clearance from the central nervous system.