Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops

Nat Commun. 2014 May 15:5:3712. doi: 10.1038/ncomms4712.

Abstract

The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Niño likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.1-5.4% but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by -4.3 to +0.8%. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Niña years tend to be below normal (-4.5 to 0.0%). Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Crops, Agricultural*
  • El Nino-Southern Oscillation*
  • Food Supply
  • Humans
  • Oryza
  • Rain
  • Snow
  • Temperature
  • Triticum
  • Zea mays