Temperature variation between neighboring days and mortality: a distributed lag non-linear analysis

Int J Public Health. 2014 Dec;59(6):923-31. doi: 10.1007/s00038-014-0611-5. Epub 2014 Oct 4.

Abstract

Objectives: To investigate whether a sudden temperature change between neighboring days has significant impact on mortality.

Methods: A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear models was used to estimate the association of temperature change between neighboring days with mortality in a subtropical Chinese city during 2008-2012. Temperature change was calculated as the current day's temperature minus the previous day's temperature.

Results: A significant effect of temperature change between neighboring days on mortality was observed. Temperature increase was significantly associated with elevated mortality from non-accidental and cardiovascular diseases, while temperature decrease had a protective effect on non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Males and people aged 65 years or older appeared to be more vulnerable to the impact of temperature change.

Conclusions: Temperature increase between neighboring days has a significant adverse impact on mortality. Further health mitigation strategies as a response to climate change should take into account temperature variation between neighboring days.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / mortality
  • China / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality*
  • Nonlinear Dynamics
  • Respiratory Tract Diseases / mortality
  • Seasons
  • Sex Factors
  • Temperature*
  • Time Factors