Thyroid cancer incidence around the Belgian nuclear sites: surrogate exposure modelling

Kaatje Bollaerts; Michel Sonck; Koen Simons; Sébastien Fierens; André Poffijn; Lodewijk Van Bladel; David Geraets; Pol Gosselin; Herman Van Oyen; Julie Francart; An Van Nieuwenhuyse

doi:10.1016/j.canep.2014.10.011

Thyroid cancer incidence around the Belgian nuclear sites: surrogate exposure modelling

Cancer Epidemiol. 2015 Feb;39(1):48-54. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2014.10.011. Epub 2014 Nov 7.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Scientific Institute of Public Health, OD Public Health and Surveillance, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: [email protected].
² Federal Agency for Nuclear Control, Brussels, Belgium; Free University Brussels (VUB), ETRO, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: [email protected].
³ Scientific Institute of Public Health, OD Public Health and Surveillance, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁴ Scientific Institute of Public Health, OD Public Health and Surveillance, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁵ Federal Agency for Nuclear Control, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁶ Federal Agency for Nuclear Control, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁷ Scientific Institute of Public Health, OD Public Health and Surveillance, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁸ Scientific Institute of Public Health, OD Public Health and Surveillance, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: [email protected].
⁹ Scientific Institute of Public Health, OD Public Health and Surveillance, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: [email protected].
¹⁰ Belgian Cancer Registry, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: [email protected].
¹¹ Scientific Institute of Public Health, OD Public Health and Surveillance, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: [email protected].

PMID: 25475063
DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2014.10.011

Abstract

Background: In a recent ecological study among residents living around Belgian nuclear sites (the NUCABEL study), significant increased incidences of thyroid cancer were observed around the two nuclear facilities with industrial and research activities (Mol-Dessel and Fleurus), prompting further research.

Methods: The data from the NUCABEL study were reanalysed to test the hypothesis of a gradient in cancer incidence with increasing levels of exposure from these sites using three measures of surrogate exposure, being (i) residential proximity, (ii) prevailing wind directions and (iii) simulated dispersion of radioactive discharges. Single-site focussed hypothesis tests were complemented with Generalized Additive Models to estimate the exposure-response relationships.

Results: For Mol-Dessel, the results of the focussed hypothesis tests were far from significant. For Fleurus, the p-values were much closer to significance with p=0.05 for Bithell's Linear Risk Score using radioactive discharge estimates as surrogate.

Conclusions: The re-analyses refute an association with the nuclear facilities for the site of Mol-Dessel. For the site of Fleurus, one of Europe's major production sites of radio-iodines, the results were less conclusive and further research suggests itself.

Keywords: Nuclear sites; Prevailing wind directions; Radioactive discharge simulations; Residential proximity; Surrogate-exposure modelling; Thyroid cancer.

MeSH terms

Belgium / epidemiology
Environmental Exposure / adverse effects
Female
Humans
Incidence
Male
Models, Theoretical*
Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced / epidemiology*
Nuclear Power Plants*
Registries
Thyroid Neoplasms / epidemiology*