Rates and predictors of 5-year survival in a national cohort of asymptomatic elderly patients undergoing carotid revascularization

Neurosurgery. 2015 Jan;76(1):34-40; discussion 40-1. doi: 10.1227/NEU.0000000000000551.

Abstract

Background: Current American Heart Association guidelines recommend carotid revascularization for asymptomatic patients on the basis of life expectancy.

Objective: To determine the rates and predictors of 5-year survival in elderly patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis who underwent either carotid artery stent placement (CAS) or carotid endarterectomy (CEA).

Methods: The rates of 5-year survival were determined by use of Kaplan-Meier survival methods in a representative sample of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 years of age who underwent CAS or CEA for asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis with postprocedural follow-up of 3.4 ± 1.7 years. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to assess the relative risk of all-cause mortality for patients in the presence of selected comorbidities, including ischemic heart disease, chronic renal failure, and atrial fibrillation, after adjustment for potential confounders such as age, sex, race/ethnicity, and procedure type.

Results: A total of 22,177 patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis were treated with either CAS (n = 2144) or CEA (n = 20,033). The overall estimated 5-year survival rate (±SE) was 95.3 ± 0.00149; it was 95.5% and 93.8% in patients treated with CEA and CAS, respectively. After adjustment for potential confounders, relative risk of all-cause 5-year mortality was significantly higher among patients with atrial fibrillation (relative risk, 1.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.1) and those with chronic renal failure (relative risk, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-2.6).

Conclusion: Risks and benefits must be carefully weighed before carotid revascularization in elderly patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis who have concurrent atrial fibrillation or chronic renal failure.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Atrial Fibrillation / complications
  • Atrial Fibrillation / mortality
  • Carotid Stenosis / complications
  • Carotid Stenosis / mortality*
  • Carotid Stenosis / surgery*
  • Cohort Studies
  • Endarterectomy, Carotid*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Kidney Failure, Chronic / complications
  • Kidney Failure, Chronic / mortality
  • Male
  • Medicare
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Risk Assessment
  • Stents*
  • Survival Rate
  • Treatment Outcome
  • United States