Validating estimates of prevalence of non-communicable diseases based on household surveys: the symptomatic diagnosis study

BMC Med. 2015 Jan 26:13:15. doi: 10.1186/s12916-014-0245-8.

Abstract

Background: Easy-to-collect epidemiological information is critical for the more accurate estimation of the prevalence and burden of different non-communicable diseases around the world. Current measurement is restricted by limitations in existing measurement systems in the developing world and the lack of biometry tests for non-communicable diseases. Diagnosis based on self-reported signs and symptoms ("Symptomatic Diagnosis," or SD) analyzed with computer-based algorithms may be a promising method for collecting timely and reliable information on non-communicable disease prevalence. The objective of this study was to develop and assess the performance of a symptom-based questionnaire to estimate prevalence of non-communicable diseases in low-resource areas.

Methods: As part of the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium study, we collected 1,379 questionnaires in Mexico from individuals who suffered from a non-communicable disease that had been diagnosed with gold standard diagnostic criteria or individuals who did not suffer from any of the 10 target conditions. To make the diagnosis of non-communicable diseases, we selected the Tariff method, a technique developed for verbal autopsy cause of death calculation. We assessed the performance of this instrument and analytical techniques at the individual and population levels.

Results: The questionnaire revealed that the information on health care experience retrieved achieved 66.1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 65.6-66.5%) chance corrected concordance with true diagnosis of non-communicable diseases using health care experience and 0.826 (95% UI, 0.818-0.834) accuracy in its ability to calculate fractions of different causes. SD is also capable of outperforming the current estimation techniques for conditions estimated by questionnaire-based methods.

Conclusions: SD is a viable method for producing estimates of the prevalence of non-communicable diseases in areas with low health information infrastructure. This technology can provide higher-resolution prevalence data, more flexible data collection, and potentially individual diagnoses for certain conditions.

Publication types

  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Algorithms
  • Artificial Intelligence*
  • Cause of Death
  • Chronic Disease / epidemiology
  • Data Mining
  • Epidemiologic Methods*
  • Female
  • Health Surveys
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Mexico / epidemiology
  • Middle Aged
  • Natural Language Processing
  • Prevalence*
  • Surveys and Questionnaires*