Seven challenges in modeling vaccine preventable diseases

C J E Metcalf; V Andreasen; O N Bjørnstad; K Eames; W J Edmunds; S Funk; T D Hollingsworth; J Lessler; C Viboud; B T Grenfell

doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.004

Seven challenges in modeling vaccine preventable diseases

Epidemics. 2015 Mar:10:11-5. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.004. Epub 2014 Aug 27.

Authors

C J E Metcalf¹, V Andreasen², O N Bjørnstad³, K Eames⁴, W J Edmunds⁴, S Funk⁴, T D Hollingsworth⁵, J Lessler⁶, C Viboud⁷, B T Grenfell⁸

Affiliations

¹ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and the Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA. Electronic address: [email protected].
² Department of Science, Systems and Models, Universitetsvej 1, 27.1, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark.
³ Centre for Infectious Disease Dynamics, the Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA.
⁴ Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
⁵ Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK; Department of Clinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, Liverpool L3 5QA, UK.
⁶ Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
⁷ Division of Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
⁸ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and the Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Division of Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.

Abstract

Vaccination has been one of the most successful public health measures since the introduction of basic sanitation. Substantial mortality and morbidity reductions have been achieved via vaccination against many infections, and the list of diseases that are potentially controllable by vaccines is growing steadily. We introduce key challenges for modeling in shaping our understanding and guiding policy decisions related to vaccine preventable diseases.

Keywords: Coverage; Elimination; Immunity; Modeling; Vaccination.

Publication types

Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

Communicable Disease Control / economics
Communicable Disease Control / methods*
Communicable Disease Control / statistics & numerical data
Communicable Diseases / immunology
Health Policy
Humans
Immunity, Innate
Models, Statistical
Vaccines / economics
Vaccines / therapeutic use*

Substances

Vaccines

Abstract

Publication types

MeSH terms

Substances

Grants and funding